Coronavirus Q&A: Predicting Pandemics

Coronavirus Q&A: Predicting Pandemics

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Marc Lipsitch of Harvard University predicts 50-70% of the global adult population could become infected with SARS-CoV-2. He discusses how prediction models are built and how they’re used and misused.

Topics discussed in this interview:
0:00 Introduction
0:27 What have the first 3 months of this pandemic been like from your perspective?
2:17 How is SARS-CoV-2 like SARS and the flu? How is it different?
5:32 What do the next few months look like?
7:37 Will masks, shields and social distancing help with businesses reopening?
9:15 As business and health systems reopen, what do they need to do to prepare?
12:04 Coronavirus serology testing
15:07 Should areas with lower rates of immunity implement different policies than those with higher rates?
17:02 Herd immunity
18:55 What questions need to be answered before we get to the fall?
20:29 Should schools be opened in the fall?
22:54 How many people should we be testing? (Serosurvey and seroprevalence)
24:13 Vaccines and vaccine development (Human Challenge Studies to Accelerate Coronavirus Vaccine Licensure: https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiaa152/5814216 )
29:51 Definitions of Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials
31:13 Given vaccine hesitant groups in the US, how do you think about a vaccine?
33:22 What do you think the fall will look like if we're not prepared?
36:24 What do we need to do to protect individuals in places like nursing homes and prisons?
38:18 What would you do if you were made the "Pandemic Czar?"
40:22 Do you think the US has the capacity to track, trace, test and quarantine?

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